March 12, 2025

The evolving landscape of global trade

The latest edition of the DHL Trade Atlas was released on March 12, 2025, and it incorporates the most recent available data and forecast updates as of January 2025. It takes into account the re-election of U.S. President Trump and the policies discussed during his election campaign, but it does not consider or reflect policies announced or implemented since the beginning of his second term in office.

Given the complex, ever-changing landscape of global trade, how can decision-makers navigate challenges and seize opportunities? How can they understand the evolution of trade flows, the impact of geopolitical tensions, or the shifting geography of world trade? How can leaders get ahead of the trends and optimize supply chains?

The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 serves as a clear and timely guide for business leaders and policymakers, offering essential insights into global trade dynamics. It also provides valuable context for educators, students, journalists, and any interested party seeking to understand the forces driving the global economy.

“In the DHL Trade Atlas 2025, we have sought to distill the most important data on the state and trajectory of global trade, using maps, graphs, and interactive visuals to bring the data to life. To help pinpoint promising opportunities, we rank 170 countries and territories according to the speed and the scale of their trade growth.” – Steven A. Altman, Senior Research Scholar and Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization, NYU Stern

 

Ten key takeaways:

  1. Faster forecast growth, greater uncertainty: Global trade is expected to grow moderately faster over the next five years than in the past decade, but high uncertainty around trade policy clouds the outlook.
  2. Proposed tariff increases are unlikely to halt global trade growth: Even if all tariff increases proposed during President Trump’s election campaign take effect and trigger retaliation, global trade is still expected to grow over the next five years – albeit at a slower pace.
  3. Made in China content finding new routes to U.S: Despite declining direct imports, U.S. reliance on China has not declined substantially as imports from other countries contain increasing amounts of made-in-China content. Also, direct imports from China to the U.S. may be underreported.
  4. Geopolitical shifts in global trade patterns limited: Trade between blocs of close allies declined relative to trade within these blocs in 2022 and 2023, but no further declines were recorded in the first nine months of 2024.
  5. Three countries led both speed and scale: Over the past five years, the United Arab Emirates, Viet Nam, and Ireland ranked among the top 30 globally for both their goods trade growth rate (speed) and absolute increase in trade volume (scale).
  6. Four countries forecast to be future growth leaders: India, Viet Nam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are forecast to be among the top 30 for both speed and scale of trade growth from 2024 to 2029, with India ranking third overall in absolute trade growth, behind China and the U.S.
  7. Three regions to outpace all others in trade volume growth: South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia are forecast to see the fastest trade volume growth from 2024 to 2029, but high-income economies are expected to generate 58% of the world’s total trade growth, with slow-growing Europe generating 30%.
  8. Trade flows continue to stretch out over longer distances: Contrary to predictions of more regionalized trade, the average trade distance reached a record 5,000 km during the first nine months of 2024. The share within major geographic regions declined to a new low of 51%.
  9. Relatively stable trade mix, with value shifts driven by price increases: Manufactured goods dominate trade, but price increases have boosted the value of trade in some goods, with the largest increases seen in the mineral fuels, electrical machinery and equipment, industrial machinery, and pharmaceuticals sectors from 2017 to 2022.
  10. Substantial potential for future trade growth remains: Despite decades of globalization, only 21% of the value of all goods and services produced worldwide is consumed outside its country of production, leaving significant room for further trade expansion.

 

Read more here: DHL Trade Atlas

 

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